Florida sees 2x faster economic recovery than other states, but the last 7 days beg the question: “Will it last?”
As social distancing orders and shutdowns went into place in March, Florida’s unemployment rate jumped from 4.4% in March to 13.8% in April and the economic activity among the hourly workforce dropped by 60% between March 15th and April 1st according to the Hourly Workforce Index. Florida is now moving into phase two of its re-opening plan, which allows places like bars, restaurants, movie theaters, and more to open at limited capacity in 67 counties.
Re-opening slower, but recovering faster economically
While other states are also re-opening, according to the Hourly Workforce Index Florida has already regained over 50% of its loss since the pandemic started. That’s faster than any other state. Compared to Minnesota where the state is already moving into phase three of its re-opening plan, but is still down nearly 50% from its pre-COVID state.
Florida is only now entering its phase two of re-opening, and is showing recovery that is double that of Minnesota and California. As of June 7th, Florida is only down 25% from where it was pre-pandemic. At their lowest point, Florida was down nearly 70% which is similar to other states like California. Compared to Florida though, California is still down 45% from their pre-pandemic levels.
While Florida has been on an aggressive upward trajectory since early April, the state has begun a steady decline since June 14th. For example, between June 14th and June 21st economic activity in Florida has started to decline by as much as 5% over the 7 day periods.
Recovering economically, but among strongest increase in COVID-19
While this may bode well for Florida’s economy, it seems there is already an increase in COVID-19 cases. The Florida Department of Health reported the largest single-day surge in cases in the past 6 weeks. That coupled with the recent economic activity downturn over the last few days seems to indicate their economic recovery may slow down as well.